The general elections of 31 July 2022 produced an unprecedented political situation, with a relative majority for the ruling coalition, that it would make arrangements with or other combinations to achieve a strict absolute majority. The rallying of parliamentarian Pape Diop of the Bokk Guis Guiss coalition played the trick. The majority is therefore so tense, to the point that one can hear the ambient debate, as if President Macky Sall was heading for a fatal prospect with the upcoming installation of the Board of the National Assembly or his government’s formation. It would be necessary to keep calm because it is not the case. Macky Sall would not have too much to fear from such; not only with regard to the functioning of the institutions and its relations but also with regard to the reality of political balances! Certainly, his camp has lost the major political advantage of being able to sit comfortably on a hegemonic or monolithic parliamentary majority. On the other hand, the political and democratic system will undoubtedly have gained in balance of forces and still this situation is a great opportunity for deepening democracy and improved public governance. The exercise of control over government action will be more assertive. Moreover, the situation, in particular the forthcoming formation of the Board of the National Assembly, nevertheless entails some political risks that should be examined with caution.

The one and only issue is the Chair

President Sall will have to convene over the next few days the first session of the newly elected National Assembly. If his predecessor, Me Abdoulaye Wade, an elected parliamentarian, deems it fit to travel on the day of the installation and that he is available, it would be his honourable duty to preside over the election session of the new executive as the oldest member. The structure of the Board is determined by the Assembly’s Internal Rules of Procedure. « The President of the National Assembly shall be elected by single-member ballot, by an absolute majority of the votes cast. If this majority is not reached in the first round of voting, a second ballot shall be held, for which the election shall be obtained by a relative majority. The vice-presidents, secretaries and questors are elected by list ballot for each office. Each group in the Assembly may submit a list by function. All these ballots are secret and take place on a proportional representation basis according to the electoral quotient method, calculated on the basis of the number of members registered in each group, with distribution of the remains according to the system of the highest average. The posts of vice-presidents and questors shall be allocated (…), giving priority to the group which has obtained the most votes. »  It is thus evident that the only post of President of the National Assembly will be fiercely contested and that the other positions will return practically automatically to the various parliamentary groups, according to their representatives. No doubt there will be no shortage of internal battles within each parliamentary group for the distribution of the positions that would be rightfully theirs.

The competition will be open for the position of President of the Institution, which certainly does not lack political merit and other advantages.  The President of the National Assemcbly is the second personality of the State and ensures the provisional replacement of the President of the Republic in the event of a vacancy in power. Also, he benefits from important prerogatives related to the function. If the candidate presented by the Benno Bokk Yaakaar (Bby) group gets all the 83 votes of members of their camp, he or she will be elected without fuss. But this might not be obvious due to possible friction or positioning squabbles. We can remember that in France for example, the deputy of La République en marche (Lrem), Yael Braun Pivet, had not managed to mobilise all the votes of the Macronist camp (250 deputies) let alone poach votes in other parliamentary groups to obtain an absolute majority of 277 votes in the vote for the presidency of the National Assembly. She ended up being elected in the second round with 244 votes after having garnered 238 votes in the first round.  She owes her salvation to the maintenance of competing candidates of the parliamentary opposition. The same scenario could take place in Senegal.

Only, who will believe that President Macky Sall will not work to consolidate his camp by ensuring the vote of each of Bby’s members, despite political cleavages or that he will not be able to grab votes in other parliamentary groups?  Secret balloting should not be feared only by Bby. It is clear that some of Yewwi and Wallu’s sides will prove to be such good friends who would not need too much persuasion to put on the mantle of perfect peepholes.  Both the government and the opposition could receive negative votes from their respective MPs. Each side is developing tricks to monitor the votes of its MPs. This is so true that the Yewwi and Wallu coalitions have held several adjustment sessions to stick together and mobilise their members who are, on paper, a total of 80.  President Macky Sall did the same with Bby parliamentarians on Saturday, August 20, 2022 from 4 p.m. to Sunday, August 21, 2022 at 2 a.m. without counting other more specific hearings. In turn, the members all swore an oath of fidelity and loyalty!

The impossible blockage of institutions

A political slap in the face for the majority would be to lose the Chair; this would be a first and would herald a bad omen for the continuation of the exercise of power.  It will therefore be important to achieve/maintain the strongest consensus within the majority.  In any case, the loss of The Chair cannot sound the death knell for Macky Sall’s regime. The President of the National Assembly alone has no special powers to block the functioning of the institutions, not even that of the National Assembly, which he heads. The President of the Republic will retain the full latitude to form his government after appointing his Prime Minister. The latter will be able to make its general policy statement within three months and it will be open to him, under Article 55 of the Constitution, to ask or not to ask for the vote of confidence of the deputies.  Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne was careful not to ask for a vote of confidence from French MPs, in the situation of the relative majority of her political camp.  What about the fateful spectacle of the motion of censure against the government? The configuration of Senegal’s National Assembly shows that a motion of censure could only succeed in the event of a defection of a few deputies from Bby.  If necessary, the President of the Republic could immediately renew the deposed government, who will have a one-year reprieve before being able to receive another motion of censure. Article 86 of the Constitution establishes the impossibility of voting two motions of censure in the same year.

For the rest of the relationship between the government and the National Assembly, it should be pointed out that most of the laws that make up the menu of parliamentary sessions do not require an absolute majority to be adopted. In addition, it is not clear which organic laws or constitutional reforms the government might consider passing in the few months leading up to the 2024 presidential election. Also, with regard to finance laws, for example, Article 68 of the Constitution states that in the event of a deadlock attributable to the National Assembly, the Head of State may implement it by decree. The hostility of the parliamentarians would not have harmful consequences. The government will have all the means to function properly and the eventual blocking of the state is only a mind view.

The end of « every man for himself, Macky for all! »

Could we imagine that the parliamentarians of Bby will lack so much altruism, towards any of their comrades, to the point of offering the post of President of the National Assembly to the opposition?  Will they be unable to stop the massacre and finally make the motto of the Scott Brothers « we win together and we lose together » their own? It is expected that President Sall has managed to obtain the necessary support from his majority to reach political consensus. The fact remains that his back is pushed to the wall in the face of the current political situation to risk the slightest blackmail. The responsibility for Bby’s political decline lies with each of its actors who fought each other fiercely. It is customary to note that Bokk Yaakaar has always proven to be Benno’s fiercest opponent. In the aftermath of the local elections, the observation was relentless: « Benno loses through its divisions » (January 24, 2022). In addition to their quarrels, there are the attitudes and other arrogant behaviour of the newcomers or even the overreach of nouveau riche who may have frustrated the populations. On August 3, 2015 we warned in « Macky or the temptation of collective suicide » that « If we are not careful, the government will be so heckled, because some ministers will still show insubordination or bad conduct, not to say rebellion; (…) All blunders bear their signatures. We were not mistaken in a column entitled « But Macky, where are we going from here? » dated May 22, 2012.  Already, we were sounding the alarm about the risks involved in the behaviour of certain officials in power. »

The decline or electoral setback of July 31, 2022 is largely explained. Will Macky Sall let his regime be scuttled by the turpitude of his own supporters? Moreover, parliamentarians of Bby owe their election to him. Indeed, it must be said that it is President Macky Sall who dared to nominate them in a discretionary way on the lists of his coalition and who essentially gave them the means to campaign; that these MPs campaigned exclusively on his record and his personal coefficient. No one imposed anything on him to be on the lists and in the position chosen by him! So, it would be inappropriate to put themselves in a position to embarrass him! In any case, we cannot imagine that President Sall will allow others to step on his toes because it is an open secret that the Head of State has decided to change his tune, not to say the way of doing things with his collaborators.  He has always sought to use conciliation to the extent of not sanctioning the faults and excesses most harmful to the cohesion of his political camp and the perception of his governance. He now seems to be at the tether of his patience! With regard to his parliamentarians, in particular those identified as potential candidates for The Chair and who, in the event of disillusionment, may be tempted to seek retaliation, the message is unequivocal that anyone who has distinguished himself by refractory or hostile behaviour has chosen to be banned in the majority and will have to renounce any ambition to be in government or to claim another function. In addition, many of them would have to fear the weakening of power, much more than President Macky Sall himself who, in any case, will remain head of state until 2024 and will work with the government of his choice.

The new National Assembly: a lion’s den?

The next parliamentary debates are going to be exciting and will require more assiduity and rigour in the work of parliamentarians. We will not fail to see situations of « parliamentary guerrilla warfare » because the opposition will stubbornly seek to embarrass the government. It will be a good war! This is why President Sall should be careful not to strip too much ranks of his majority and other experienced personalities to bring them to the government or other positions in the state apparatus.  The parliamentary debate should gain in intensity perhaps by the quality of the parliamentarians but also the large number of members of the opposition and the multiplicity of parliamentary groups.  And, speaking times should impose on the Bby majority the ability to count on members who will have the nerve.  The same goes for the quality of the members of the government. Ministers whose statements are written for them, which they read like schoolchildren, will be eaten alive by MPs. The practices that consisted in ensuring, by unorthodox procedures, the benevolence of members of the majority as well as the opposition, before any passage before the National Assembly, will no longer be able to operate. It will be necessary for a minister to take charge of his files, to have the glibness, the nerve and the verb necessary to face or hold the debate high. Otherwise, if Bby loses the parliamentary debate in a lamentable way, it will also lose public opinion, again and again, in terms of the perception of the quality of political staff and governance.  It remains to be seen how far these new parliamentarians in power as well as those of the opposition would go!

By Madiambal DIAGNE / mdiagne@lequotidien.sn