Free of the mortgage of Macky Sall, who is already thinking about his Marrakech delights, the new leader of the Senegalese opposition has a huge task ahead of him if he wants to finally win the presidential chair in 5 years’ time. First of all, he will have to get rid of the dross left behind by the outgoing head of state, whom he realised never wanted him to win. And, surrounded by his Benno allies, he will have to rebuild a genuine opposition party, united to win back power.

The provisional results of the presidential election of 24 March, as published yesterday by the Dakar Court of Appeal, reveal that Amadou Ba, the candidate of the Benno bokk yaakaar (Bby) Coalition, obtained 1 million 605 thousand 86 votes, being 35, 79% of the votes cast that day. This puts him in second place among the candidates. If the logic applied in 2019 is anything to go by, when Macky Sall won by a landslide ahead of 4 other candidates, including Idrissa Seck, who came second with just over 22%, Amadou Ba should claim the status and privileges of leader of the opposition. If, at least, he feels up to it.

Mr Ba, like Bassirou Diomaye Faye, was a delegate candidate. They were both supported by a movement of which they were not the leaders. Once elected, BDF had the intelligence to return all the mandates he held in his political movement, and is therefore freer to pursue the policy he intends to lead at the head of the State.

Read the column – From the Depths of the Ballot Box, the Revolution…

For Amadou Ba, things shouldn’t be any more complicated. Here we have a candidate who, as soon as he was nominated, was challenged by some of his party’s old hands. It is even said that the leader himself, who had supported his candidacy, no longer concealed his animosity towards him and secretly wanted him to be defeated. Things got to the point where it was the leaders of allied parties, members of the Bby Coalition, who threw their weight behind Macky Sall to ensure that he did not abandon his protégé in the middle of the campaign. But he paid lip service, knowing that Amadou Ba was about to have his Waterloo. However, while there are many reasons for his defeat, Amadou Ba’s future prospects are in his own hands.

The first option for him would be to make an Opa on the Benno Coalition. With over 35% of the vote, making him the leader of the opposition, he is ipso facto the leader of his movement. And since Macky Sall is on his way out, all his lieutenants, who stood against the former Prime Minister, will no longer have the means to oppose his stranglehold. A grip that will be favoured by the likes of Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye, Moustapha Niasse and Abdoulaye Saydou Sow, among others. All these people have revenge to take, and will be keen to form a strong and determined opposition that will position itself as an alternative to Pastef. Failing that, Barthélemy Dias will reposition Taxawu around himself, in preparation for the 2029 presidential election. Opponents within the APR will just have to shut up or leave.

Read the column – Drawing Inspiration from Macky’s Promises

If he is embarrassed to carry on the Apr legacy, Amadou Ba will be able to get rid of the name and leave it to Macky Sall’s heirs. The latter will themselves find it difficult to rally behind an indisputable leader, now that their leader has turned his back on them. The Apr has never been a structured party, but rather an electoral machine, shaped to serve the interests and ambitions of a single individual. Now that he no longer needs them, he will leave them with a shell that they will find hard to fill. And it is not the candidate chosen against their will that they will be asking to act as their guide.

On the other hand, all those who have been loyal to him during the hard times of this rather unusual campaign could help him, with the support of allied parties, to form the nucleus of the largest opposition party, which could become a force to be reckoned with in the face of Pastef. If Amadou Ba really feels he has what it takes. We know that he can be determined if he is convinced of the goal. The other solution would be for him be content with enjoying the enormous wealth that he allegedly has, and to distance himself from politics. That wouldn’t be a bad idea either.

By Mohamed GUEYE /mgueye@lequotidien.sn

  • Translation by Ndey T. SOSSEH