Yesterday, following the announcement of the demonstration planned by Aar Sunu election coalition, even though it was banned and the organisation had decided to abide by the Prefect’s decision, the city of Dakar had a weekend feel about it. Traffic flowed freely in both the city centre and the suburbs, and many shops had lowered their curtains in advance. Already the day before, several schools had warned parents that classes would not be held, much to the dismay of the little ones who were eager to put on their ‘Mardi Gras’ outfits.

The regional express train (Ter) had also warned its users the day before that its services were likely to be severely disrupted, while asking its subscribers to take alternative measures. The Brt, which was due to start its commercial service, had to postpone it. On the toll motorway between Dakar and Diamniadio, there were virtually no traffic jams, which is quite unusual at certain times of the day. As for the public transport company Dakar Dem Dikk, it had already suspended its rotations on Monday, and did not resume yesterday, Tuesday, while waiting to see how the situation would evolve. We are not talking here about the interruption of mobile internet data and the inconvenience caused to users. It doesn’t take much, sometimes just an announcement of a demonstration, to turn the lives of the Senegalese upside down.

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Since 2021, we have already seen that demonstrations, even so-called peaceful ones, often result in major damage. Every time political leaders, particularly from the opposition or so-called civil society, such as Y’en a marre or F24, call for a rally or march, if it has not been authorised, there are scuffles that often result in casualties. Between 2021 and 2024, nearly 60 people lost their lives as a result of violent confrontations with the Defence and Security Forces. For the most part, these were young people in the prime of their lives, with high hopes for their families and loved ones. And above all, lives lost for reasons that many of the victims did not understand.

It cannot be compared to anything else, and especially not to material goods. Nonetheless, some of the living victims felt they were dying in the face of the scale of their material losses. What about the shopkeepers whose businesses were engulfed in flames by the fury of certain demonstrators, unable to reach the « forces of order » who were too heavily armed for them? What about the petrol station employees, who are almost systematically laid off whenever looters attack their businesses? They’re just adjustment variables, when the boss has to work out what he’s going to write off, knowing that the insurance companies won’t lift a finger over losses caused by riots.

We have often talked about the economic consequences of violent demonstrations. All the service companies that find themselves without internet following the State’s decision to suspend mobile data, or the internet altogether, as we saw in June 2023, sometimes miss out on markets that are crucial to their survival. And even lose the means for future expansion.

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Political instability breeds social and economic insecurity. Faced with an unstable future, who would invest in economic projects in an uncertain environment? Unless they were selling arms or drugs, which is far from beneficial for any country. There was a time when the Senegalese didn’t worry too much about this, believing that their country was too poor to attract big investments. We didn’t break much, because there wasn’t much else to break. But things have changed considerably in recent years. Senegal is in the process of moving out of the agricultural economy and into the extractive economy. And this is an area where the returns on investment are calculated in billions.

In a peaceful environment, it is easy to ensure that all partners benefit from the windfall. But if there is great instability, it is the local populations who lose out twice over. They have no peace and see their resources slip away from them, leaving them even poorer. And there is no shortage of examples of how instability in our poorest countries does not chase away the sharks of finance. The war against the jihadists is not stopping gold mining in Mali and Burkina Faso. The chronic instability and deaths in North Kivu and the east of the country are not stopping the big foreign companies from finding their way to the many mineral riches of Congo Kinshasa. We can also be sure that even if we burn this country down, foreign companies will continue to come and exploit our zircon, gold and iron in the south-east, as well as the oil and gas along our coastline.

The only real victims if the country becomes unstable will be the Senegalese.

By Mohamed GUEYE / mgueye@lequotidien.sn

  • Translation by Ndey T. SOSSEH / Serigne S. DIAGNE