Baba Diop of the Sud Communication Group, during the national elections (Presidential or Legislative), hosts succulent columns in the campaign newspaper on Sud Fm, with the famous character Ton’s. In one of his columns, Baba recounts the misadventure of Ton’s who leaves for a meeting dressed in the colours of a political party. When he arrives at the scene, he realizes that it is the rival party that is holding the meeting! But ingenious as he is, Ton’s just had to turn his big boubou around to be with the right colours. And all smiles, our national Ton’s affirms: «Maa graaw dé! Maa meun thiou, maa meun thiaa!»

Read the column – Vision Senegal 2050, a glaring lack of ambition!

We too are tempted to say to Victor Ndiaye, « yaa meun thiou, yaa meun thiaa! », after his high performance. Indeed, this Monday, October 14, 2024, the President of the Republic presented the development strategy entitled « Senegal 2050 ». The document is nothing other than a synthesis of the « National Strategy for the Development of the Senegalese Private Sector (Sndsp 2022-2026) » and the Priority Action Plan 3 (Pap3) 2024/2028 of the Emerging Senegal Plan (Pse). Nothing has changed in substance. The rappers of Keur Gui would have said: « Same dogs yi, same cats yi. » And it could not be otherwise because it was the same civil servants who did the work. However, friend Victor, like Merlin the magician, came to present his magic powder to « make the Senegalese dream ». Senegal thus enters the era of continuity with the PSE of President Macky Sall without saying so, with a spectacular about-turn.

We only increase and strengthen what is already in place. 

Could it have been otherwise? Already the Pastef party, like a Bedouin selling sand in the Sahara, has long waved a « Project » as real as Atlantis. During the presidential election last March, the « Porozet » was even presented with a flagship idea: an « exit from the CFA », but which curiously disappeared in the document presented this week (this is proof that the question of currency served as a backdrop for a populist and demagogic speech to stir up anti-French sentiment).  Moreover, the Prime Minister with the « five-year » or « ten-year » variations finally admitted that the campaign document was more of a « profession of faith » than a project, much less a program. Already, the vocabulary used showed that it relied heavily on what already exists. Indeed, in the program, we count the verbs « reinforce » 92 times, « increase » 16 times, « reform » and « institute » 9 times each. The pre-eminence of the verbs « reinforce » and « increase » is proof that Diomaye’s program relies on what already exists. We only increase and reinforce what is already in place.

Read the column – Senegal of Bakel, Dakar Arena’s Senegal

Vision Senegal 2050 has a history. It begins with the announcement by the highest authorities, in the Council of Ministers, of the drafting and finalization of the « Project » in September. Enough for the friend with the highly appreciated performances in Gabon to be introduced by Atépa Goudiaby, godfather of the Sonko-Diomaye couple. Initially, according to well-informed sources, it was a « free » contribution to support the new authorities. But business being business, the contribution became « onerous », one site even spoke of 2 billion CFA francs.

« We were elected to make the Senegalese dream, but your document does not make them dream »

On the instructions of the Prime Minister, officials from the Ministry of Economy, already well advanced in drafting the document, were asked to see how to integrate the vice-president of the Senegalese Investors Club (CIS) into the loop. Naturally, some frictions were not lacking, to the point of requiring the arbitration of Ousmane Sonko. A harmonization meeting was even held at the Riu Hotel. Following this, the roles were defined: Victor had to make the prospective vision and Abdourahmane Sarr’s teams the strategic plan 2024-2029. Towards the end of August, a meeting to present the document to the leader of Pastef. And then, a dramatic turn of events: Ousmane Sonko tears up what was presented to him. « We were elected to make the Senegalese dream, but your document does not make them dream. » In addition, he will let them know that « (their) figures on debt and the budget deficit are not the right ones. » The civil servants’ response: « We presented you with a realistic and achievable document. The figures we used are the official figures, produced by the relevant services. »

Never mind, Sonko turns to Victor to « make the Senegalese dream ». Friend Victor thought he had set the scene well when he said: « When you take over a house in poor condition, a sensible person would not move in right away. On the contrary, three steps are necessary: ​​first, make an exhaustive inventory, then straighten it out; then put in place solid foundations and major works, give impetus; and finally tackle the second work, accelerate. » However, God created the Var and it reminds us that at the presentation of the « National Strategy for the Development of the Senegalese Private Sector (Sndsp 2022-2026) » (strategy whose broad outlines are included in the new document), the same Victor told us: “Today, we are exactly halfway to emergence in 2035. And during this first cycle of emergence, as we have seen, you (Editor’s note: the President of the Republic) have built the foundations. It is important at the time of taking stock to tell the Senegalese. The main work of emergence is now in place. And this main work is the most difficult part. Like any impulse, it is the most expensive part in terms of public investment, and it is the most thankless part because, the structural work, no one can live there. But thanks to your record, our country can today engage in a new cycle towards emergence. Indeed, economic emergence is not about doing everything, but trying to do very well the priorities that we choose. » Seriously, the Var was created for the Senegalese!

Either Sonko is not telling the truth, or all the projections are false.

And basically, what should we remember? This document, presented with a glaring lack of participatory approach (congratulations to Elimane Kane of Legs Africa for having raised it), is based on the budget deficit and debt figures that Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko announced as false. Either the head of government is not telling the truth, or all the projections are false. If we are at a deficit of 10.4% on average between 2019 and 2023 (according to Sonko), we are then allowed to doubt the sincerity of the document which plans to achieve a budget deficit of 3% in 2025, after 3.9% in 2024. Already the IMF indicated in its latest economic review that « in the absence of additional budgetary measures, the deficit should exceed 7.5% of GDP, well beyond the 3.9% planned in the initial budget… ».

Read the column – Senegal drowns in its rivers

What about growth? It is clear that the Diomaye-Sonko couple is terribly lacking in ambition. Indeed, Agenda 2050 is based on an average growth rate of 6.5 to 7%. However, it is accepted that countries that have been able to achieve double-digit growth have been able to truly transform themselves. With these timid projections, Senegal risks repeating the same failures as in the past. And tripling the GDP per capita, increasing it from $1,500 to $4,500 in 25 years, is projecting us to the current level of Namibia ($4,512) and well below Equatorial Guinea ($5,506), Gabon ($6,655) and Botswana ($6,708). Universal access to energy, within reach with the development of the “Gas to Power” strategy, is postponed to 2034. Job creation remains very low with 700,000 jobs projected by 2025, while each year 350,000 young people enter the job market.  Reported over the duration of the vision, more than 7 million young people arrive on the job market. So only 10% of job creation.

By Bachir FOFANA