On April 8, 2024, barely after the new regime was installed, I indicated, in a column entitled « No one has the right to bet on the failure of Diomaye Faye », that the « risks and pitfalls on the path of the new government are numerous » and that the new regime would « experience its first hundred days of hell ». It was perhaps a truism, but we believed that it was up to the political authorities of the State to have the intelligence to establish dialogue, consultation to get through this, until the establishment of a new National Assembly.  Without this, « tensions of various kinds could arise from this situation and their exacerbation would not fail to have unfortunate consequences for the stability of the country. It is therefore urgent to commit to helping the new regime get its head above water, to prevent it from sinking. The failure of Bassirou Diomaye Faye will be fatal for everyone. »

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I repeat it today. However, it is up to the President of the Republic, more than ever, to take the initiative to ease the tension. Yet, if there is tension on the political scene to the point of threatening the regular functioning of institutions, we must determine who is responsible. It is the exclusive fault of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, who indulges in childish provocations, insulting and threatening everyone. He did not respect his opponents, much less the judicial institution that he seems to want to reduce to a vassal status of the government, or the Parliament that he snubs. His opposition wanted to play the game, it must be said, once again, but the Prime Minister proved stubborn, placing his ego above the higher interests of the Nation. He refused to fulfil his duty to proceed with a General Policy Declaration (Dpg) and submit to the political and democratic game. His alibi of an imperfection of the Internal Rules of the National Assembly was truly not one. Indeed, as soon as President Faye obtained from the parliamentary majority a dialogue and consultation to adapt the Rules of Procedure of the National Assembly, in order to satisfy the whim of his Prime Minister, authoritative voices were raised to say that Ousmane Sonko will not appear before this National Assembly. He himself said it. The government played subterfuges and delaying tactics on the process of promulgating the law amending the Internal Regulations, while the Prime Minister announced the fatal dissolution of the National Assembly for September 12, 2024. This fooled no one and covered the Executive with ridicule. 

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Fortunately, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye once again, took the initiative to find an arrangement with the National Assembly. It is thus announced that the Prime Minister will make his Dpg on September 13, 2024, before this National Assembly which is far from being his. He will be in the same position as Moustapha Niasse on July 20, 2000. The Prime Minister that he was, appointed by President Abdoulaye Wade, faced a Chamber largely dominated by MPs from the Socialist Party. Moreover, it cannot be imagined that this new date, proposed by the President of the Republic and accepted by the National Assembly, is a decoy.  We have seen Waly Diouf Bodian insinuate that the Prime Minister will not be present.  If this is the case, the credibility of the president of the Republic will take a sacred blow.

Two little months to save Senegal from ungovernability
Let’s be clear, the Head of State is rolling out his political and institutional agenda in a discretionary manner. He needs to seek a parliamentary majority as quickly as possible. He will have the latitude, from September 12, 2024, to pronounce the dissolution of the National Assembly. However, he should be careful not to do so in haste. The country certainly needs certain due diligences to be satisfied before returning to the electoral campaign. Otherwise, it runs serious risks of ungovernability, and for good reason. It is urgent to clear away all the clouds that are gathering over relations with development partners, in particular the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  Senegal missed its July deadlines with the IMF, resulting in a non-disbursement of the sum of 230 billion CFA francs. Another disbursement of 169 billion, is planned for December 2024.

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These sums are essential for the State budget. The Minister of Finance and Budget, Cheikh Diba, made a quick trip to Washington, without succeeding in unblocking the situation. Beyond the explanations required by the IMF on the conditions for organizing, at the beginning of June 2024, a Eurobond operation, Senegal finds itself unable to meet certain prerequisites such as the adoption of a supplementary finance law (LFR) to adjust the State budget. In the schedule agreed with the IMF, the LFR was to be examined in July 2024. The lack of sincerity of the budget currently being implemented is an open secret. The minor quarrels between the Prime Minister and the National Assembly have weighed heavily on this government’s shortcomings. In any case, the government has not even adopted a draft amending finance law in the Council of Ministers. This means that if the National Assembly is dissolved before having voted on a Finance Law, this issue, a major bone of contention with our partners, will not be resolved by the end of the budget year on 31 December 2024. As a result, budget management will suffer from gaps, anachronisms and deficiencies that will catch up with the 2025 financial year.

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But the most serious situation facing Senegal is the risk that the 2025 budget will not be adopted on time, that is, before December 31, 2024. This would be an unprecedented situation. Senegal has never experienced such a scenario and the harmful consequences for the economic and financial viability of the country are being apprehended. The budgetary principle is to consume each month one twelfth of the credits voted from the previous budget. In other words, the Diomaye-Sonko regime will still have to deal with the budget left by the Macky Sall regime and which was voted, it should be remembered, in December 2023. It will be a standstill, no change in the direction of public policies advocated by the new regime will therefore be operational. In addition, all projects currently being implemented will be dead in their tracks. It therefore seems irresponsible that political leaders casually proclaim that there would be no danger in the long run if a new budget is not voted on time. This reflects a staggering ignorance of the ways in which the State operates. Such a situation would contribute to further deteriorating relations with technical and financial partners. Senegal cannot afford the luxury of doing as it pleases. It is also worth wondering whether the government is really ready to submit a new draft budget. Since last August, the new budget was supposed to be subject to technical and political arbitration, and the project was supposed to be submitted and adopted by the Council of Ministers to be on the desk of the National Assembly on September 15, for the budget session that opens on October 1. From what we know, none of this will be done!

President Diomaye Faye must restart the initiative

Political crises occur in all democratic countries. In the United States, there are quarrels that prevent the timely adoption of the federal budget, causing a « shutdown », i.e. the cessation of non-essential federal activities. But each time, dialogue is initiated to find a compromise and get through the bad patch in a very short time. The « shutdown », never before experienced in France, is today the dreaded case and energies are mobilized to avoid it, hence the difficult negotiations for the formation of Michel Barnier’s government. The major concern, not to say the headache of President Macron, is to have a budget adopted for the year 2025. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz was forced to negotiate a compromise, the epilogue of a long parliamentary conflict, to save the 2025 budget because the prospect of a budget blockage would be a blow « to the stability of Germany ». It would not occur to any responsible politician to stand before the people and tell them, with his fingers in his nose, that « it doesn’t matter if there is no budget; we will manage until we can install a new National Assembly. »

We must be careful not to listen to sorcerer’s apprentices who advocate implementing the budget by decree. It is clear that foreign partners, who finance more than 46% of the national budget and which the new government already has a hard time convincing, will be reluctant to finance a budget that does not have the approval of the National Representation. We must not dream, we cannot do without, in our institutional arrangement, the role and missions of the National Assembly. However poor its quality may be! The tool of dialogue and discussion with respect, had allowed Moustapha Niasse and Abdoulaye Wade to have two LFRs adopted during the year 2000 and better, a budget for the year 2001 was voted for them « without debate ». It is therefore up to President Faye to initiate dialogue to save Senegal’s furniture. The only concession will probably be to leave the National Assembly in place for another two short months. The parliamentary majority has so far been conciliatory in granting President Faye the right to amend the Rules of Procedure and to change the date of 11 September 2024 initially chosen by its « Conference of Presidents » to adopt the date proposed by the President of the Republic. Moreover, this majority seems to fully understand that the dissolution of the institution is inevitable. A « gentlemen’s agreement » must therefore be possible.

The new regime is in dire need of resolving these latent issues in order to be able to roll out its policy without any problems in the years to come. Even the opposition, which hopes to obtain a majority in early legislative elections to cohabit with President Faye, will need, if necessary, not to inherit a country in ruins. This dialogue and these discussions will in no way prevent the continuation of the necessary and normal policy of accountability. Dialogue with the opposition did not prevent the Wade regime from pursuing its policy of accountability. Once again, on April 8, 2024, I warned: « President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will be forced, before pronouncing the dissolution, to wait at least until December 2024, in order to let the budget session pass. » No doubt I will not be listened to, because there are many contrary winds, but Senegal must be placed above our little egos!

By Madiambal DIAGNE / mdiagne@lequotidien.sn

  • Translation by Ndey T. SOSSEH