My friend Thierno Diop asked a question on his Facebook page: « More seriously, what’s new in nine months? » Everyone has their own answer, but mine is that the statue of Lat Dior, which the President of the Republic went to inaugurate in Thiès, is the first achievement of the « Porozet » in 9 months. It may make you smile, but it is the sad reality, and the country is economically gloomy.

As proof, Senegal returned empty-handed from its quest for 25 billion CFA francs, for a maturity of 39 days, on the UEMOA financial market (ref: Front page of Le Quotidien, December 5). « The sum, submitted on Friday, November 29, in the form of Treasury Bonds (Bat), had a value date of Monday, December 2. However, on that date, Senegal received… zero submissions; no one wanted the issue of the second economy of UEMOA, » wrote the newspaper. Enough for Cheikh Diba, Minister of Finance and Budget, to get on his high horse to « formally and vigorously denounce a malicious attempt to harm the country’s image. » He added that « the issuance of public securities on the UEMOA regional market complies with strict and transparent rules and procedures that Senegal scrupulously respects in the implementation of its debt strategy. » However, he acknowledges a little further on: « It is true that in the indicative calendar communicated in February 2024, an issue was planned for November 29, 2024. However, due to the successful mobilization, on November 15, 2024, of an amount of nearly 92 billion CFA francs covering the initial forecasts of 25 billion CFA francs, this issue was not finally confirmed.  This significant mobilization, combined with other external financing, made it possible to strengthen the cash position and cancel the issue initially planned for November 29, 2024.  » Diba sought to deny information and finally confirmed it! The information is simple: an issue was made and was finally withdrawn. And at the time of its withdrawal, there were zero subscriptions! These are the facts. Furthermore, the ministry informs us that there were 92 billion in a previous issue. Except that the information is not complete. What the ministry does not tell the Senegalese is that it was looking for 130 billion and only obtained 92! Usually, Senegal often obtained more than what it was looking for. Moreover, transparency for transparency, we are waiting for the « Budget Implementation Report » for the last quarter and Cheikh Diba’s services are slow to move.

Economic gloom according to the Dpee

After Cheikh Diba, it was the turn of Abdourahmane Sarr, Minister of Economy, Planning and Cooperation, to describe the ambient gloom of the Senegalese economy through two documents produced by his services. Indeed, the “Monthly Economic Outlook” of October 2024 and the “Economic Outlook” (third quarter) show a not very bright map. Documents produced by the Directorate of Forecasting and Economic Studies (Dpee), housed in the General Directorate of Planning and Economic Policies (Dgppe).

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“In the third quarter of 2024, the business climate deteriorated, in quarterly variation. The synthetic indicator decreased by 4.6 points and remained below its long-term average. This situation reflects the unfavourable opinions of “Public works buildings” contractors, service providers and traders. Over one year, the business climate indicator decreased by 3.0 points in the third quarter of 2024,” the note says. And we understand why many businessmen prefer other countries in the UEMOA zone, if they have not simply thrown in the towel.

In industry, for example, the constraints on activity noted by industrialists are demand (36%), competition (33%), difficult recovery of debts (28%), difficult supply of raw materials (19%) and taxation (8%). This means that the new authorities are responsible for 72% of the gloomy situation in the industrial sector.

 “The Village is Diomy”

The same situation is true in the construction sector. According to the “«Monthly point”, in the sub-sector of buildings and public works, “the obstacles raised by the majority of entrepreneurs are the difficulty in recovering debts (83%), taxation (67%), insufficient demand (50%), difficult access to land (33%), supposedly unfair competition (33%), the cost of inputs (33%) and the obsolescence of equipment (17%)”. We cannot block construction, not pay suppliers (the reason for the anger of the students at the University of Ziguinchor) and hope that it works! This power does not understand that « when the building industry is doing well, everything goes well ». Because the building industry is the perfect illustration of a country that is moving forward. Indeed, construction is the main engine of growth, capable of driving and making the rest of the economy prosper. But when we have an approach of tax repression, denigration of its private sector and imprisonment of its national champions, we should not hope for an economic upturn. The article concludes with a « pessimism of entrepreneurs with regard to the evolution of public and private orders received ».

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Sarr’s services also say that money is no longer circulating. In simpler terms: “Deuk bi dafa Diomy.” According to the “Conjuncture Note,” “the evolution of the monetary situation, based on estimates at the end of September 2024, showed a contraction in the money supply of 157.2 billion CFA francs.” The document added: “The money supply fell by 157.2 billion CFA francs between the end of June and the end of September 2024, to reach 9,584.5 billion CFA francs. This deterioration in overall liquidity is notable through fiduciary circulation (banknotes and coins outside banks), which decreased by 201.4 billion CFA francs to reach 2,384.6 billion CFA francs.”

Which naturally has an impact on consumer prices which « increased by 1.0%, in quarterly variation ». Beef (+1.6%), fresh fish (+15.3%) and « fresh vegetables in fruits or roots » (+18.3%) have taken the elevator. As has local rice (1.8%). « Over one year, ordinary, unscented and local broken rice posted respective price increases of 5.3%, 19.1% and 10.1% on average in the third quarter of 2024. Over the first nine months of 2024, respective increases in the prices of unscented (+18.8%), ordinary scented (+4.6%) and local broken rice (+9.9%) are noted ». However, the government boasts of having lowered food prices.

Money supply in circulation fell by 117 billion in one month

The Senegalese are in a tough situation. This is evidenced by the « money supply (which) decreased by 117 billion » between August and September 2024, according to the « Monthly Economic Outlook ». The money supply reached 9584.5 billion at the end of September 2024. « This contraction is mainly attributable to fiduciary circulation (banknotes and coins outside banks) and transferable deposits, which fell by 63.8 billion and 60.5 billion respectively, to reach 2384.6 billion and 4657.5 billion ».

In terms of public finances, the gloomy economic activity has led to budgetary management with « moderate progress in the mobilization of resources, combined with sustained execution of expenditure ». The « Quarterly Economic Outlook » and the « Monthly Economic Outlook » are unanimous on a crucial piece of information: « No budgetary grants have been mobilized by the end of October 2024. » This is proof that the IMF’s withdrawal has a terrible impact on our relations with technical and financial partners. Furthermore, how do you expect partners to trust a country whose head of government accuses his officials of having falsified his figures on debt and the budget deficit?

Meanwhile, Sonko settles his political scores

Furthermore, for a country that was expecting growth of 7 to 8%, the documents from the Ministry of Economy project a growth of 3.7%, and 2.8% for the cumulative 9 months of activity.

Meanwhile, this power is not ready to work for the good of the Senegalese and the advancement of this country. But it is just focused on settling political scores with Barthélemy Dias, Madiambal Diagne, Adama Gaye… This power’s priority is to settle scores, while Senegal sinks. Revenge and maintaining divisions are the emergencies of Pastef, a political party that was born and maintained itself through hatred until it reached the top. History indeed stutters. After everything we have experienced with Macky Sall, the Diomaye-Sonko duo is still managing to bring back the same bad practices with the same weapons! What is the added value of this dismissal of the mayor of Dakar for us, the Senegalese people? Why is this dismissal so urgent, so important in our eyes? What does Pastef gain by lowering itself in this way? The question to ask is this: if Dias was still on Sonko’s side, would he be treated the same way?

It is Pastef, the outlaw party, that is brandishing the law today. Those who talk to us about applying the law have short memories. Ousmane Sonko and his activists have never accepted or tolerated the laws and regulations that were applied to them, even if it meant destroying this country. So, what has changed? It is Pastef, who yesterday spoke of “Macky Sall’s Prefect,” who today used the same Prefect for dirty work. Indeed, the person who contacted the Prefect to dismiss Barth’ is a member of Pastef. So, it is indeed Pastef who is at the origin of this dismissal, on the orders of Ousmane Sonko. Because behind the application of the law, it is about settling scores and revenge, nothing else. There is none so blind as he who does not want to see, and it is a betrayal of the promise of rupture. Pastef is expected elsewhere, its mission will be hard and perhaps long. So, it would be good if the powers focused on the essential and stopped these low-level conflicts.

By Bachir FOFANA

  • Translation by Ndey T. SOSSEH